The Engineered Future
The future of life
When considering the future of the evolutionary process, it
is important to understand the fundamental aspects of future
organisms.
One of the prominent features of them will be that they are
engineered.
This means that they will contain features that are the
product of intelligent design.
The past
Up to this point, evolution has proceeded mainly through the
processes of mutation, recombination and selection.
The present
Now that human beings have arrived on the scene, new
possibilities have opened up for making new organisms.
In particular, design and engineering can now be employed.
The future
The result of the introduction of these new tools will
be a fundamental revolution in the evolutionary process.
No longer will mutations be largely an undirected process.
Instead changes in organisms will be made deliberately, in
the hope of better fitting them to their expected
environment.
Similarly recombination will no longer be a process of
finding a mate and mixing their genes with your own.
Instead, the entire biosphere will be a potential reserve of
useful genes which might prospectively be employed. Nor need
one creature be picked as a mate - instead genes from any
number of creatures could be used.
Ultimately, selection will still remain - but the ways in which it
acts may change somewhat.
As an example of such a change, one way selection will be
applied in the future involves the possibility of fitness
evaluation under simulation.
Instead of trying a modification in the real world, it can
be tested in a simulated one. The advantes of this can be
expected to include reduced cost, reduced time for
evaluation - and the possibility of partial fitness
evaluations.
Why will engineered creatures come to dominate?
We can expect to see engineered creatures in the future
because they will rapidly become superior to organisms
attempting to evolve by more conventional means.
Conventional evolution uses random mutation sexual reproduction
and selection to improve its organisms.
Engineering also uses random mutation and selection - but it
can also use intelligent design, directed mutation, cross-
species recombination, Lamarckian inheritance and selection
under simulation to produce its future designs.
This is a superset of the tools available to natural selection.
Since things like intelligent design and cross-species
recombination are so plainly extremey useful design tools -
the end results are practically bound to be superior.
Is an engineered future inevitable?
Not quite. There is some chance that our planet's life forms
will be bombed back into the stone age, by phenomena such
as repeated asteroid impacts.
If heavy asteroid impact prevents complex life reestablishing
itself on this planet - and in the unlikely event that no
other living organisms establish themselves elsewhere -
then possibly the enginnered future can be averted.
Judging by the frequency of asteroid impacts over the course
of our history, this outcome seems rather unlikely.
It might appear that widespead use of nuclear weapons
would also result in a similar effect.
I don't think this is true. Widespread use of nuclear
weapons would merely result in a minor delay.
Such setbacks would have to be repeated and continual in
order to divert living organisms from their natural path.
More serious than asteroid impact would be an invasion
by more advanced alien beings.
That might well have fatal consequences. However if such
aliens are out there, the chances are overwhelming
that they themselves will be engineered. The future
will still consist of engineered organisms - they
just might not be our descendants.
What about bans on human germ-line genetic engineering?
Any attempt at a long-term ban on genetic engineering would
eventually have the effect of forcing it underground.
In the extremely unlikely event that human genetic
engineering is successfully suppressed, there are
two other means by which the engineered future will
manipulate itself into existence:
- Cyborgs: man will become engineered by developing a
symbiotic relationship with his machines. The human element
will then be down-regulated while the machine element comes
to dominate.
- Takeover by machines: A similar result is also sometimes
described as the "grey goo" scenario. It is basically
similar to the "cyborg" scenario - but there is less
cooperation between the humans and the machines in the final
stages.
Those opposed to genetic engineering should realise that
they are implicitly promoting these alternatives - since
they are about the only other realistic options.
References
- Hans Moravec "Mind Children", Harvard, 1988;
- Mark Ridley "Mendel's Demon - Gene Justice and the Complexity of Life" 2000;
- K. Eric Drexler "Engines of Creation" 1986;
- Gregory Stock "Redesigning Humans: Our Inevitable Genetic Future" 2002;
- Lee Silver "Remaking Eden" 1997;
- Ralph Brave James Watson Wants to Build a Better Human.
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